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UID:20250813T231505EDT-2488o6Br23@132.216.98.100
DTSTAMP:20250814T031505Z
DESCRIPTION:Lutz Kilian (Federal Reserve\, Dallas)\n	Host: Silvia Goncalves
 \n\nDate: 29 November\, 2019 \n	Location: Leacock 429\n\nAbstract:\n	There h
 as been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil\,
  the value of the U.S. dollar\, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s
 . For example\, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s 
 is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as well
  as low U.S. real interest rates\, along with a surge in global real econo
 mic activity. Quantifying these effects one at a time is difficult not onl
 y because of the close relationship between the interest rate and the exch
 ange rate\, but also because demand and supply shocks in the oil market in
  turn may affect the real value of the dollar and real interest rates. We 
 propose a novel identification strategy for disentangling the causal effec
 ts of traditional oil demand and oil supply shocks from the effects of exo
 genous variation in the U.S. real interest rate and in the real value of t
 he U.S. dollar. We empirically evaluate popular views about the role of ex
 ogenous real exchange rate shocks in driving the real price of oil\, and w
 e examine the extent to which shocks in the global oil market drive the U.
 S. real exchange rate and U.S. real interest rates. Our evidence for the f
 irst time provides direct empirical support for theoretical models of the 
 link between these variables.\n\nWebsite: https://sites.google.com/site/lk
 ilian2019/\n
DTSTART:20191129T203000Z
DTEND:20191129T220000Z
LOCATION:Leacock 429\, Leacock Building\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 2T7\, 85
 5 rue Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Lutz Kilian (Federal Reserve\, Dallas)\, 'Oil Prices\, Exchange Rat
 es and Interest Rates'
URL:/economics/channels/event/lutz-kilian-federal-rese
 rve-dallas-oil-prices-exchange-rates-and-interest-rates-298032
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